Is President Trump Delaying Coronavirus Infection Reports? (repost from futureblog.org)
greg beier originally published futureblog.org tomorrow’s news today 12 february 2020 08:19 gmt
“It’s very, very transmissible, and it almost certainly is going to be a pandemic”
Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease in the New York Times.
America’s Coronavirus Infection Rate is Oddly Low
As of February 11, 2020 1600 GMT, Singapore has reported 47 infections while Hong Kong has reported 49. It’s obviously wrong that Singapore has virtually the same number as Hong Kong when Hong Kong has an active, open border with China. Clearly, Hong Kong is under-counting infections for political or capacity reasons. Similarly, Western Europe has reported 43 infections, while the US has reported 13. America’s numbers seem low given Western Europe’s comparable population to the US while the US has a greater number of Chinese nationals to boot. Why is the US infection rate relatively low?
All of this becomes more striking in light of comments on February 11th from Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas on CNBC, “From when the virus began incubating in mid-November until now, there may have been a million and a half arrivals from China to the United States.”
Lastly, former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb wrote in a CNBC Op-Ed on February 10th “Models suggest that for every person who traveled into the U.S. infected with coronavirus, and who was successfully diagnosed and quarantined, maybe three more arrived undetected.”
CDC Coronavirus Testing Process is Slow and Bureaucratic
An expert on virus testing that I queried stated that CDC requires coronavirus samples to be sent to state health departments and then on to CDC for testing. This is a slow process that seems outdated when local testing kits can be had for $2 a pop. Mayor Bill DeBlasio is pushing to get the tests out to New York as is Senator Cotton to all 50 states.
People Are Careful When Risks Abound
A Harvard epidemiologist pointed out to me that social responses to an epidemic only occur when there are reported cases. Any lack of news about confirmed cases when an infectious disease is prevalent means that people won’t take reasonable precautions.
Trump Obfuscated Troop Injuries in Iraq
President Trump suppressed reports of injuries to troops from the Iranian missile attack on US bases in Iraq this past January. He initially tweeted that nobody was hurt. Later, reports emerged that 60 had suffered injuries which the President characterized as “headaches.” The Guardian reported yesterday that over 100 troops had, in fact, suffered traumatic brain injuries – a substantial change from the President’s initial claim. President Trump clearly withheld information to support his immediate political needs. Could President Trump also be delaying confirmed coronavirus infections announcements too?
Trump’s Incentives to Delay Facts: Impeachment and Election
Given the impeachment vote last week and the current election year battles, the Trump Administration has substantial incentives to suppress bad news. Why? To protect the stock market and consumer confidence as both of which would immediately take a hit on virus news.
Without a vaccine, “social distancing” - keeping people apart - is the only way to slow down a virus. And the price for doing this is dramatically slowing down the economy which leads to lost revenue and people losing their jobs.
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This is what is happening right now in China and Hong Kong. It is exactly what would cause President Trump to lose the election if it occurred here in America too. The President has substantial incentives to delay new infection reports.
President Trump’s reelection strategy is a huge bet on stimulus from cutting taxes, interest rates, and regulation to pump-up the stock market and the economy. If the “sugar high” continues long enough, his gamble is that is that he will win the presidential election in November.
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Unfortunately, exogenous shocks like a pandemic are exactly what could sink his bet and lead him to losing, much like Super-storm Sandy saved President Obama’s reelection bid in 2012. Ironic that a tiny virus can knock the President out of the White House.
I often hear from many of President Trump’s most ardent supporters that they dislike him personally but will vote for him if things are good. Therefore, his margin for error is quite limited should the economy start to turn down.
Is Trump Repeating China’s Mistake?
Under the pretext of preventing a panic, there is the possibility that President Trump is influencing the CDC’s control of the testing process to determine when infections are announced, if at all.
He might be hoping that it all just goes away. China did exactly this. The authorities in Wuhan sent information to their higher-ups in Beijing who sat on the results.
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So, if President Trump is making the same mistake – the result could be catastrophic too if the disease is spreading. And the really big variable which we don’t know yet is if there are “super-spreaders” like the British national who visited Singapore and infected people in France, Spain, and the UK. The CDC designates 68 cases as “Pending” meaning “specimens received and awaiting testing, as well as specimens in route to CDC,” so there is plenty of room for President Trump to suddenly bump the number up to 82.
One Million Students Left Wuhan, China’s Biggest College Town
While it is well known that 5 million people left Wuhan before the quarantine commenced on January 23rd, what is less well known, as I was personally told by a Chinese academic, is that Wuhan is China’s biggest college town and that 1 million students left Wuhan before the lock down. What if the transmission speed in Wuhan is linked to the large student population as students are a highly social demographic?
As America’s winter break this year coincided with China’s Lunar New Year, it’s probable that an above-average number of Chinese students went home and returned for the start of spring term. America has 360,000 Chinese university students, more than any other country, and at least 15,000 are in Boston.
Could Boston be the Next Wuhan?
As America’s biggest college town, Boston has a large student population like Wuhan with a freshly returned population of students from China over the past few weeks – the ingredients exist for an outbreak in Boston. There is currently no public health warning in Boston and the hospitals are not operating at a heightened level of risk mitigation.
Trump’s 2nd Impeachment
What would happen if infection reports are delayed? Nancy Pelosi would undoubtedly make good on her threat to impeach the President again. If infection rates start to soar, then the stock market would crash and loads of people would lose their jobs (in a bizarre repeat election crisis like 2008), then Republican senators like Tom Cotton would have to abandon President Trump to save themselves and he would lose his impeachment trial in the Senate.
President Sanders?
If an epidemic starts here in the US, Bernie Sanders will win the Democratic Nomination and the Presidential Election as voters would certainly put creating a single-payer national health care system at the top of their agenda, something Sanders has fought for his entire life – possibly starting a transformational era in America akin to Reagan or FDR.
The next few months are going to be crucial. If infections start to rise, the US could be on the edge of massive political change that may define the next forty years.
Policy Recommendation
Senator Tom Cotton and Mayor Bill DeBlasio are smart to push for local testing kits so that the CDC can’t control the testing process anymore. It is time for distributed national testing so that each area can react quickly and decisively to any health threat. America should ensure these tests are produced at the cheapest possible price and shared with poorer countries too so we have good global measurement.
Investment Outlook
Negative - a lot more can go wrong than right.
Liquidity generated by President Trump’s policies have created a super-bubble.
Hardly anyone mentions downside risk in assessing the future - everything is up.
Q1 2020 will likely be the first quarter of negative global GDP growth since 2009.
The biggest risk to global growth is if the coronavirus becomes endemic without a vaccine.