Red Alert 2 = Republicans to Lose Senate

Politics
Written By

greg beier macroESG.com thursday 15 october 2020 08:56 pm EDT

Subscribe to the Macro ESG Podcast: Apple Spotify Google Anchor links to other providers.

Markets, Politics, and Technology for a Sustainable Future


Actionable Ideas:

  • The Republican Senators commitment to no new fiscal stimulus plan will drive the equity market lower.

  • A lower equity market will hurt the median voter and will drive down support for Republican candidates.

  • This will push yields lower in US government bonds and create fait accompli for Biden’s win amongst institutional investors who will treat the new administration with great relief.

Coronavirus Red Alert 2

After I finished my piece Coronavirus Red Alert, and was discussing the associated Covid charts with a genius economist (as one finds easily here in Cambridge, Massachusetts), it dawned on me that I had missed a key part of the story.

  • The death forecasts from U Washington @ Seattle are to February 1, 2021.

  • By that point, the pandemic will be in full tilt, so that the likely death forecast from the full wave in yesterday’s charts (at the bottom again), say through June 1st, may be for another 100,000, possibly 200,000?

  • Obviously, the forecasters needed to come up with a 12 month forecast from the inception of the outbreak on February 1. But this is an arbitrary break.

  • In other words – the United States may only be one-third the way through the total death count. That is a staggering fact – staggering.

Coronavirus Infections in Swing States

Reports in the Financial Times and Reuters are that infections are rising rapidly in the swing states.

Donald Trump and the Republican Party which has been doing everything possible to pretend that the coronavirus doesn’t exist.

It is surging in Florida - which with its large senior population, could turn blue. If Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona are confirmed wins for Biden on election night - then the entire election is over.

Please see the extensive charts below for the full picture.

Bumper Democrat Fundraising

  • Reuters reports that ActBlue, a Democratic online fundraising platform located in Boston, raised $1.5 billion for July through September.

  • Joe Biden’s campaign raised $383 million in September (with the average donation under $50) – a likely record for a presidential campaign – brining their total war chest to $432 million to spend.

  • Moreover, ActBlue raised $70.6 million the day after Ginsburg’s death – a showing that indicates just how concerned women are about their future.

Republicans to Lose Senate Majority 

  1. Given the dangerous trajectory of the pandemic as we get closer to the election

  2. combined with the swing states suffering the brunt of the infections (which means hospitals will hit capacity and triage units and field hospitals will be opened on the fly),

  3. along with the record fundraising of the Democrats that

  4. will likely lead to the airwave being saturated with their messaging and

  5. Donald Trump’s messaging having lost its inherent newsworthiness (that got him a lot of free air time last go around),

I am now calling “check-mate” on the Republicans losing the Senate.

Screen Shot 2020-10-15 at 8.48.44 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-15 at 8.48.44 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-15 at 8.49.03 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-15 at 8.49.03 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-15 at 8.58.39 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-15 at 8.58.39 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-15 at 8.49.37 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-15 at 8.49.37 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-15 at 8.50.17 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-15 at 8.50.17 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-15 at 8.58.54 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-15 at 8.58.54 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-15 at 8.50.41 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-15 at 8.50.41 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-15 at 8.51.00 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-15 at 8.51.00 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-15 at 9.10.45 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-15 at 9.10.45 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-15 at 9.11.09 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-15 at 9.11.09 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-15 at 9.11.47 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-15 at 9.11.47 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-15 at 9.12.03 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-15 at 9.12.03 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-15 at 9.19.01 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-15 at 9.19.01 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-15 at 9.19.25 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-15 at 9.19.25 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-15 at 9.21.15 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-15 at 9.21.15 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-15 at 9.21.37 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-15 at 9.21.37 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.32.53 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.32.53 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.33.07 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.33.07 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.33.40 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.33.40 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.33.57 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.33.57 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.34.34 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.34.34 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.34.48 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.34.48 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.35.10 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.35.10 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.35.24 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.35.24 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.35.58 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.35.58 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.36.14 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.36.14 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.36.34 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.36.34 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.36.46 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.36.46 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.37.11 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.37.11 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.37.25 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.37.25 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.37.44 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.37.44 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.37.59 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.37.59 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.38.23 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.38.23 PM.png
Screen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.38.40 PM.pngScreen Shot 2020-10-14 at 4.38.40 PM.png


Previous

Macro ESG Called for Lower Equities on Stimulus Failure, This Strengthens Biden’s Blue Wave
Next

Coronavirus Red Alert