How to Win the Ukraine War (without firing a shot)
I had a chance conversation with a Ukrainian scientist today, with whom I shared my reasoning as to why the Ukrainian war is being fought and how it can be resolved. My views are unconventional and quite contrary to the prevailing winds, but as she liked them so much, and as they may be helpful to unwind a dangerous and contentious problem, I made a video to walk you through my ideas.
Sustainability Arbitrage LLC and 2021 Surprise Forecast
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I am pleased to announce that Macro ESG is now the research product of Sustainability Arbitrage LLC, a company that I founded. Macroesg.com will be the research portal for Sustainability Arbitrage.
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I believe that a significant surprise event likely to happen in 2021 will be the massacre by the Taliban of mid-level and low-level collaborators in Kabul, Afghanistan. I have not seen this idea stated anywhere and as it is so obvious – it leads me to believe that this could be a surprise with power in the markets.
Macro ESG Daily: Silver, USD, Chinese and US Equities, Social Media, Russia
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Silver to outperform gold as this rally likely driven by offshore EM private wealth.
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US dollar weakness to continue as America’s frailties have been exposed by the George Floyd protests combined with by far the worst performance of any developed nation tackling the pandemic in terms of per capita infections and deaths while Europe is in the midst of building a cooperative democracy.
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China’s equity market bull-run to continue on Pompeo’s failure to build an international coalition.
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The key to US equities may be “buy the virus, sell the cure.”
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LSE’s Stern made a brilliant point today about the political inevitability of politics coming around to support a sustainable future within the next four years.