Worse than Watergate: The US is a Long-Term Buy
We are at a historic moment in the history of the United States.
As Macro ESG has been writing for some time, the Trump administration is fitting the historical analog of the two previous presidencies, Hoover and Carter, that preceded their respective transformational presidencies, FDR and Reagan.
This means that Joe Biden is going to be a transformational president, just like FDR and Reagan, which makes the US a long-term buy.
How Biden’s Plan to Decarbonize America Will Impact the Dollar
Macro ESG Summary
In summary, the US dollar’s value is determined by S - Social assessment (class and race divisions) which is primarily determined by its G - Government assessment (capability and leadership).
Investment and Trading Plan
If a surprise event comes up - like a bad ending to the war in Afghanistan - that leads to protests in the US and a decline in the Social assessment, then the US dollar is a solid short. If other bad Government actions/decisions drives Social lower, then the USD is a very solid short.
Conversely, if Joe Biden maintains strong social cohesion and pulls the country together after Mr. Trump leaves office with a solid plan that the country buys into, then the dollar is all set to be steady to up. In Macro ESG speak, if strong G leads to steady to strong S - then the USD is a buy.
Sustainability Arbitrage LLC and 2021 Surprise Forecast
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I am pleased to announce that Macro ESG is now the research product of Sustainability Arbitrage LLC, a company that I founded. Macroesg.com will be the research portal for Sustainability Arbitrage.
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I believe that a significant surprise event likely to happen in 2021 will be the massacre by the Taliban of mid-level and low-level collaborators in Kabul, Afghanistan. I have not seen this idea stated anywhere and as it is so obvious – it leads me to believe that this could be a surprise with power in the markets.
#2 of 6: China Builds Investment Alliances with Oil Suppliers via Rising RMB + Equities as US Squabbles
Summary:
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China is likely preparing the RMB to rally along with the stock market. Perhaps China is doing a deal with the non-China SWF’s – which would make sense. Governments talking to governments – building strategic alliances of capital and trade – new blood brothers.
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These new alliances of “mutually assured growth and political control” will have a big impact on the evolution of global development.
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Unless the advanced economies respond forcefully, the world is entering a dark phase.
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As the oil industry is officially becoming relegated to the back waters when the largest market cap company in the world was Exxon in 2011 and Exxon has just been pulled from the Dow Jones Industrial Index, oil is about to make itself felt in another big way.